Italy’s economy is unproductive and hampered by structural, cultural and demographic problems. Nothing in her speeches suggests that she understands the need for competitiveness
has no experience of government , and its expected coalition will include the parties led by Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, two untrustworthy men with a record of tricky relations with Brussels. Both have plenty of reasons to clash with Ms Meloni, who will have stolen a crown each thinks should be his. In a country that has had 30 prime ministers and more than twice that many governments since 1946, this is not a recipe for stability.
How anxious should these very different camps be? The risks are obvious. But there are also reasons to be cool-headed. First, consider social policy.members are strongly committed to Catholic values, and many would like to turn the clock back. But Ms Meloni has clearly stated that she has no plans to strike down the law that permits abortion, which has been in place since 1978 and enjoys solid support; an attempt to repeal it was rejected in a referendum in 1981 by nearly 70% of those voting.
A bust-up would turn off the supply of money. It would also mean that Italy would become ineligible for support under the European Central Bank’s new bond-buying instrument. It would cause a crisis in the markets, and Ms Meloni knows it. Insiders say she is trying to find a reassuring banker to serve as her new finance minister and a respected pro-European to be her foreign minister. Reassurance is Ms Meloni’s mission, and in this she is different from Mr Salvini, an unreliable firebrand.
There is one more indubitable plus to Italy’s probable new prime minister. Unlike Mr Salvini and Mr Berlusconi, or indeed Ms Le Pen and Mr Orban, Ms Meloni is no fan of Vladimir Putin. Since the invasion of Ukraine, she has been a steadfast and strong voice of support for Ukraine andNonetheless, Ms Meloni faces daunting odds. Italy’s economy is unproductive and hampered by structural, cultural and demographic problems.
Is Ms Meloni the right person to do the pushing? Nothing in her speeches suggests that she understands the need for competitiveness. In fact, she favours sweeping nationalisation and protectionism, though she will be unable to achieve either.What happens if the economy goes wrong? After years of interest rates being set at or below zero, theraised them by 0.75 percentage points this month. Further increases are forecast for this year.
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