In September, inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis after increasing by 0.6% the month before, slightly above economists' expectations.
The annual inflation rate leveled off at 3.7% in September, the same as the previous month, according to the Consumer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics . However, on a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.4% in September after increasing by 0.6% the month before, slightly higher than the 0.3% pace that economists expected. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose by a somewhat more muted 0.3% for the month, in line with expectations.
The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March of last year, which has triggered a significant jump in mortgage rates, pushing them to their highest level in over two decades. How high rates move will largely depend on the central bank's next decision. The National Association of Home Builders, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors have asked the Fed to be more transparent about where rates are heading.
If September's inflation figures push the Fed to stick to its restrictive interest rate policy and raise interest rates, it could reignite recession forecasts, according to the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions Economist Noah Yosif. Mortgage giant Fannie Mae is still predicting a mild recession in the first half of 2024 as consumer spending continues to outpace incomes and the Federal Reserve's previous interest rate increases work their way through the system.
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