California is suffering a major demographic reversal, one that threatens both the state’s economic future and the durability of its progressive model.
While the pandemic may not have impacted California as lethally as elsewhere, affordable housing will be critical at a time when many workers — including— can work remotely from less expensive, and congested, places. The state’s hostility to suburban and ex-urban development, a critical component in its sky-high property prices, directly increases housing prices and rents, and threatens to reduce the available workforce even for the strongest remaining parts of its economy.
Disadvantaged minorities and the foreign born are also heading to the exits, or simply not coming. According to, over 30 percent of California residents—including 40 percent of African Americans and 50 percent of Latino— lack sufficient income to meet their basic cost of living. Incomes for African Americans and Hispanics rank 48th to 50th in the nation, while home ownership rates are among the lowest as well.
The Latino population in California rose at only one-half the national rate from 2010 to 2019, while California’s Black population grew by only 0.8 percent, well below the 7.2 percent national rate and even further below the rates of Florida and Texas. Over the past two decades, the African American household population hasThere’s also been a relative decline of the foreign-born population, which has for years floated California’s demographic boat.
Perhaps most disturbing in the long run has been the rapid decline in families. California’s coastal metropolitan areas exhibit particularly small percentages of school-aged children. Out of the nation’s 53 major metropolitan areas in 2019, San Francisco ranked 52nd , San Diego 42nd, Los Angeles 38th and San Jose 33rd. Since 2007,across the country has dropped from 2.1 to 1.6 but California’s fell faster, from 2.2 to about 1.5.
Long seen as a paragon of youthful energy, California is inexorably getting older. From 2010 to 2018, California aged 50 percent more rapidly than the rest of the country. By 2036,For generations, the Golden State represented the model for the American future. Whether it was movies, muscle cars, the sexual revolution or fashion, Californians always felt we were “where it’s at.” But without changed policies, the state’s signature surfboard could be replaced by the walker.
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