In general, the market has a slightly bullish bent during election week. Since 1928, the average change for the S&P 500 in the week of the election is up 0.7%.
What happens to stocks during election week? In general, the market has a slightly bullish bent during election week, but you can slice it different ways. Since 1928 there have been 24 elections. The average percentage change for the S & P 500 in the week of the election is up 0.7%, with the index gaining 63% of the time, according to Birinyi Associates. However, the last 4 days of the week , the S & P is down an average 0.4% and up only 58% of the time.
That is largely determined by the state of the economy and earnings. Third quarter earnings have been rising as we get near the end of the reporting season and, more importantly, fourth quarter earnings are expected to rise more than 10%, led by technology up 14.6%. Analysts have not been significantly cutting those estimates. That is why the S & P 500 is only 2% below its historic high. S & P 500 earnings estimates Q3: +8.4% Oct. 1: +6.0% Q4: +10.7% Technology: +14.
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