Six monthly indicators in determining whether the nation is indeed in a downturn — and they’re not flashing red. Moneyweb Investing Markets
The official arbiters of US recessions look at six monthly indicators in determining whether the nation is indeed in a downturn — and they’re not flashing red. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business-cycle dating committee rejects the notion that two negative quarters of gross domestic product is the definition of a recession. Instead, it looks at indicators ranging from consumption to jobs to industrial activity.
Payroll growth has been slowing but continues to be positive, with July payrolls additions expected to total 250 000 when the government reports the figures Friday. Real personal consumption expenditures Adjusted for inflation, personal consumption has continued to expand this year, rising in five of the past six months. Consumer spending accounts for around 70% of the US economy, so it remains a key driver for growth.
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