Mid-month data points to a mixed bag for petrol and diesel in April.
The Department of Energy has stressed that the daily snapshots are not predictive and do not cover other potential changes like slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes, which are determined by the department at the end of the month, taking all variables into account.
In the first two weeks of March, South Africa’s rand was hammered by a slew of negative economic data, which was exacerbated by risk-off sentiment globally. This has contributed to a significant under-recovery in fuel prices of around 40 cents per litre. The currency has been hit from both ends: weak GDP data for Q4 2022 signalled that the South African economy has likely entered a technical recession, with the damage from load shedding taking its toll. Load shedding has run a red line straight through the economy, beating down business confidence and generally impacting all facets of life in the country.
On the one hand, demand forecasts have been higher thanks to China getting rid of its zero-Covid policy and opening back up for business. This has generally pushed oil prices up slightly, countering a narrative of a looming global recession and reigning productivity.
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