Global warming took off in the mid-1970s when the rise in global mean surface temperature exceeded natural variability.
warmest on recordNow, in 2023, all kinds of records are being broken. The highest daily temperatures ever recorded globally occurred in early July, alongside the largest sea surface temperature anomaly ever.
But global mean surface temperature does not continue relentlessly upwards. The biggest increases, and warmest years, tend to happen in the latter stages of an El Niño event.is relentless and largely predictable. But at any time, and especially locally, it can be masked by weather events and natural variability on interannual or decadal time scales.
The major El Niño event in 2015-16 changed that. 2015 became the warmest year on record, ending the hiatus, only to be surpassed by 2016, which remains the warmest calendar year so far in many records. The effects are greatest in winter in each hemisphere. There is good but incomplete evidence that changes in winds alter ocean currents, ocean convection and overturning, resulting in changes in the amount of heat sequestered deep in the ocean during theAccordingly, during the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more heat is deposited in the upper 300m of the ocean, where it can influence global temperatures.
With a new El Niño emerging and prospects that it could be another major event, are we about to experience the next step up the stairs? Already in 2023, sea-surface temperatures emerged in April as the highest on record and values are running 0.2℃ above previous highs.
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