Miami has jumped to a 37 percent chance to land the Bucks superstar on Kalshi as of Wednesday night.
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks looks on before a game against the Brooklyn Nets at Fiserv Forum on April 10, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.as of Thursday, making them the clear market favorite as speculation builds around the two-time NBA MVP’s future in Milwaukee.come opening night in the fall, but Miami has since surged past the Bucks amid growing trade buzz, skyrocketing from as low as 25 percent on Tuesday night.
In late April, the Bucks’ chances at retaining Antetokounmpo were just a shade under 40 percent, with the Heat barely in the mix at nine percent and dropping as low as six percent earlier this month. The Bucks are now trailing at 19 percent on Kalshi, followed by the Celtics at 10 percent as another potential landing spot for Antetokounmpo.
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks sits by the court before a game against the Brooklyn Nets at Fiserv Forum on April 10, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.that the Heat and Celtics were the two teams “believed to intrigue” Antetokounmpo should he be dealt out of Milwaukee. would later push back on the notion that Antetokounmpo could be headed to Boston, which seemingly helped Miami’s chances of landing the coveted star. Antetokounmpo, who has one year left on his deal with a player option for the 2027-28 season, is likely to have a say on where he is traded given his contract situation.
If a deal is done before the draft, the Heat would have three picks and multiple draft swaps, along with intriguing young talent like Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic to potentially offer the Bucks for Antetokounmpo. Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
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