A look back at healthcare predictions from the previous year, analyzing which ones hit the mark and which ones missed the target. The text explores trends like the rise of conservative politics impacting diversity efforts, the continued struggles with healthcare worker burnout, and the growing popularity of weight-loss drugs.
Each year, I dust off my crystal ball and attempt to divine what lies ahead for the healthcare industry. With an eye toward assessing the state of the industry and fine-tuning my crystal ball, I’ve decided to revisit my predictions from the previous year. What I’ve discovered is that I’m sometimes wrong, sometimes right, and always surprised by the rate of change in what is undoubtedly one of America’s most dynamic industries.
So, without further ado, let’s see which of my bold predictions hit the mark and which ones were as off-target as a broken stethoscope. \In late 2023, I had little reason to believe that healthcare might become a focus of the upcoming presidential campaign. Unfortunately, I was correct. The subject, which affects all Americans, was hardly broached, much less addressed in any sort of substantive way. Going forward, I think healthcare will become a topic of politics, but we’re likely to see the discussions built around what I call “The RFK Jr. Effect.” Fringe ideas about wellness, disease causation, and medications will go mainstream. Skepticism about the work of health professionals will balloon. Until, of course, people develop a genuine healthcare need. Then they’ll be thankful for the science-based healers who make up the backbone of our healthcare industry and, perhaps, wonder why we don’t discuss it more when choosing our leaders. \Looking back on my original prediction, I’d say that I was slightly off in foreseeing a rise in “mega-mergers.” As expected, in 2024 Cigna did indeed unload its Medicare business, selling it for $3.7 billion to Health Care Service Corporation. Other than that, I’d describe what we saw in 2024 as a healthy number of mergers, although deal volume was slightly down from 2023. FBI Warns iPhone, Android, Windows Users—Do Not Install These Apps I am not entirely backing away from this prediction, however. In 2024, hospital mergers were up, Ohio’s Summa Health went to Health Assurance Transformation for $485M, Adventist scooped up Sierra Vista and Twin Cities Community for $550M, and Risant grabbed Cone Health, to name a few notable acquisitions. These may not be mega, but they’re mergers, and they continue to portend increased consolidation in the healthcare industry as it did in 2023. \As it did in 2023, my sense that criticism of the Medicare Advantage program would lead people to abandon it simply hasn’t come true. I suspect that’s because beneficiaries have discovered that MA plans provide rich benefits and limit out-of-pocket expenses, things you simply can’t get from traditional Medicare. (Disclosure: I lead SCAN Health Plan, a California-headquartered Medicare Advantage Plan with >297,000 members.) Going forward, critics of MA are likely to find their arguments less persuasive than ever. Last week, the Biden administration announced an increase in payments to MA plans in 2026. Also, Dr. Mehmet Oz, the likely new administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), has been unabashedly supportive of Medicare Advantage. Look for the program to continue to grow over the next four years and beyond. \My prediction that digital health would face headwinds in 2024 proved partially correct. That doesn’t mean anyone should write off digital health. Its fundamental problem has long been its failure to meaningfully connect to the analog healthcare system. But no one should doubt that new startups with realistic valuations and a plan to seamlessly connect with the traditional healthcare system will pop up and succeed. That’s even more likely as artificial intelligence comes on the scene. It promises to solve some of the industry’s vexing and most intractable problems and could start to impact patient care—albeit in small ways at first—sooner than we expect. \Unfortunately, I hit the nail on the head with this one. According to recent data, the demand for chief diversity officers in healthcare is down significantly, which many people attribute to backlash from conservative state legislatures. Support for DEI initiatives isn’t likely to come from the federal government either. A few days after the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was announced, Vivek Ramaswamy, the nominee for that role, pledged to eliminate DEI programs in the federal government. Equity boosters shouldn’t despair, however. Whether companies choose to hire diversity officers, many healthcare organizations continue to view health equity as a worthwhile goal, and we should expect these efforts to bear fruit despite whatever headwinds they may face at the government level. \My prediction that burnout among healthcare workers would continue to be a major challenge in 2024 proved correct. The number of physicians leaving the workforce remains stubbornly high—and may have dropped as a result of the exodus from the profession we saw following the COVID pandemic. The fact is, to fully confront the problem, we need a revolution in the management and leadership of most healthcare organizations. But too many organizations are getting by just fine with business as usual, so they delay making fundamental and necessary changes to their strategies and operations even as their front-line staffs continue to suffer. \No doubt about it: the popularity of weight-loss drugs is on the rise. Their presence has literally changed how the medical profession thinks of obesity as a health problem.
Healthcare Predictions Medicare Advantage Digital Health Diversity Equity Inclusion Burnout Weight-Loss Drugs Consolidation Artificial Intelligence
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