Victories have given Democrats increasing hope of taking back one and perhaps both houses of the U.S. Congress in next year's midterm elections, but a new Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that some of that enthusiasm may be premature.
WASHINGTON — Recent electoral victories have given Democrats increasing hope of taking back one and perhaps both houses of the U.S. Congress in next year's midterm elections, but a new Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that some of that enthusiasm may be premature.
Republicans hold a greater advantage with older voters, who are more likely to turn out during non-presidential years. And those voters may be less swayed by the kind of cost-of-living issues that have animated recent Democratic campaigns, the poll found.The poll "shows there is still a lot of work ahead for Democrats to unify their base and to demonstrate they can meet the moment," said Joel Payne, a longtime Democratic strategist.Democratic candidates have in recent months been able to leverage voters' concerns about the economy and President Donald Trump's overall unpopularity into a series of wins that have injected energy into a party that was moribund after Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' loss last year.The most recent victory was in Miami, where Eileen Higgins on Tuesday became the first Democrat in almost 30 years to be elected mayor. That came on the heels of Democrat Mikie Sherrill winning the New Jersey governor's race and Democrat Abigail Spanberger being elected Virginia's governor last month.Warning sign for DemocratsBut the Reuters/Ipsos poll contains some blinking-red warning signs heading into a year where the party needs a net gain of three seats to win back control of the U.S. House of Representatives and a net gain of four seats to take the Senate.Some 46% of U.S. voters aged 50 and older said they planned to vote for the Republican running in their congressional district, 8 percentage points more than the 38% who said they would vote Democrat, according to the poll, which concluded on Monday.The strong Republican lead marks a significant change from past midterm election cycles, held midway through U.S. presidential terms.In December 2021 — ahead of the last midterm elections — older voters favored Republicans by only a single point — 43% to 42%. In the same month ahead of the 2018 election, when Democrats ended up winning the House, they had a small lead among older Americans age 50 and up, 40% to 38%.As they have traditionally, Democrats enjoy an advantage among younger voters. The poll gave them an 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot among voters under 50 — 42% to 31%. Summing together voters of all ages in the latest poll, 40% pick
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