The polls suggest Kamala Harris is in a closer contest with Trump than Biden was. Indeed, according to the Real Clear Politics average, Harris has cut Trump's lead almost in half.
Just a week after President Biden abandoned his re-election campaign – and his vice president quickly sewed up the support of the Democratic delegates – a series of polls are beginning to measure the impact of the attempted assassination of former President Trump, the Republican convention – and the impact of the substitution of Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. The polls suggest the vice president is in a closer contest with Trump than Biden was.
It’s still about Trump – and whether voters want to see him return to the White House, or opt for Harris and prevent a second Trump term. And just as before – the best way to analyze the new polls – is to look at the share of the vote that Trump seems to be winning.
The best sign for Harris in the current polling is that her voters appear much more enthusiastic than Biden voters had been. Indeed, the enthusiasm of her supporters is on par with the enthusiasm of Trump voters. In a very close election, with both sides fielding well-funded get-out-the-vote efforts, individual voter enthusiasm can put one candidate over the top.
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