Forecasters were closely watching Tropical Storm Idalia as it passed Cuba and headed toward exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
The heat isn't just at the surface – the ocean heat extends deep into the upper ocean layer, or the thermocline, which is roughly 150 feet to 500 feet deep.Oceanic Heat Content measures how deep warm water goes, showing the depth from the sea surface to the 26° C isotherm. Idalia's forecast path, from west of Cuba on Aug. 28, 2023, toward the Florida Panhandle, follows some of the deepest reservoirs of heat.
. With more heat and water vapor in the atmosphere, clouds heat up and the storm can rotate faster. It can also bring more intense rainfall.A few things will weaken a hurricane. One is if the storm encounters cold water. Without warm water as a fuel source, the hurricane can no longer strengthen. In this case, however, the Gulf is exceptionally warm.
Wind shear is another important factor. Wind shear is a difference in wind speed and direction at different heights in a storm. StrongThat's common in the Atlantic basin during El Niño years like 2023. The question everyone has been asking this year is whether the wind shear will be strong enough to counter the extreme heat, and that doesn't appear to be happening with Idalia.
That wind shear is still beneficial for people in the storm's path. Without it, a hurricane over water this warm could grow into a catastrophic Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Right now, it's forecast to be close to a Category 3, which is still dangerous.Long term, research shows Atlantic hurricane intensity has anIf you just look at wind speed, the average intensity of storms across all six major ocean basins isn't increasing. But rainfall intensity is a different story.
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