The latest estimate for California’s Los Angeles-to-San Francisco high-speed rail project, made earlier this year, set the cost at $105 billion.
California Democrats are locked in one of the most consequential disputes in modern state history over the future of the Los Angeles-to-San Francisco high-speed rail project after a decade of troubled construction.
“The project is not proceeding according to a robust plan, which results in waste and other inefficiencies,” said Bent Flyvbjerg, a business expert in mega projects at the University of Oxford’s Saïd Business School and IT University of Copenhagen. “Given the political divisions, the cost growth, the schedule delays and the lack of a sound future revenue source, this project is going to the graveyard of famous boondoggles.
In his negotiations with the Legislature, Newsom has offered several billion dollars of sweeteners to the urban centers to get the $4.2 billion. So far, the Assembly has not bitten.Against this backdrop, Rendon and a majority of Democrats in the Assembly want to essentially detonate Newsom’s plan for the rail.
The Senate has maintained its long silence on the rail project. Senate Transportation Committee chair Lena Gonzalez, a Democrat from Long Beach, declined an interview request and to answer written questions. In a statement, she said she is working on a “robust transportation funding package.” Helen Kerstein, who monitors high speed rail for the Legislative Analyst’s Office, said the current standoff — though not an immediate threat — is important to resolve for the long-term future of the project.
The Assembly plan would also delay installation of a high voltage electrical system until the Central Valley tracks connect somewhere. In the interim, it wants the rail authority to consider a new generation of battery-operated trains, which manufacturers say could reach 170 mph and higher in coming years. Kelly disputes the battery trains could travel fast enough to comply with legal requirements.
“The cost and schedule experience so far does not yet support optimism about future performance,” wrote the author, Louis Thompson, the longtime chairman of the panel and a former Federal Railroad Administration executive and World Bank railroad expert. Parker, the rail authority spokeswoman, said it is working on construction updates and will present those to the rail board this summer. One of the three construction contracts, led by the Spanish firm Ferrovial, is expected to be “substantially complete” by the current deadline, she said.
Parker said the authority has been transparent about the overall problems, which originated from starting construction “out of sequence” with land purchases and utility relocations. She noted, “Currently, we are working through those challenges and we’re implementing procedures to prevent these issues from happening on future contracts.” She said work has begun on some uncompleted utility relocations, leaving 28% yet to start.