GOP redistricting edge moderated Democrats' 2018 gains, AP analysis finds.
The AP used the so-called"efficiency gap" test in part because it was one of the analytical tools cited in a Wisconsin gerrymandering case that went before the U.S. Supreme Court in 2017 and is part ofscheduled to be argued on Tuesday before the court. In that case, justices will decide whether to uphold a lower court ruling that struck down North Carolina's congressional districts as an unconstitutional political gerrymander favoring Republicans.
Many political and redistricting experts say the formula provides a neutral way to determine the effects of gerrymandering and how one party can maintain power for a decade or beyond. Plaintiffs in the North Carolina case say now is the time for the court to end highly partisan gerrymandering, with the next round of redistricting set to follow the 2020 Census.
Republican lawmakers concentrated Democrats in other congressional districts. In the only three districts Democrats won last November, they carried at least 70 percent of the two-party vote. Other states that had consistently sizable Republican advantages in both congressional elections included Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Alabama and Texas — all places where Republicans were in charge of redistricting after the 2010 Census. Although Democratic victories mounted nationally in 2018, the AP's analysis showed that the Republicans' efficiency gap advantage became more pronounced in those states.
The analysis shows Pennsylvania Democrats could have expected to win a 10-8 congressional majority based on getting about 55 percent of the total two-party vote. The fact they didn't might be explained by the high concentration of Democrats in urban areas, which diminishes their votes elsewhere. The efficiency gap analysis showed more states with a Republican edge than a Democratic one in their U.S. and state House districts.
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