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since October. It is also his largest, with the president beating Trump by 2 points, 50% to 48% in a two-way race. That drops to 1 point when third-party candidates are included, with Biden receiving 43% to Trump’s 42%.and Emerson College paints a different picture. Trump leads in six battleground states and is tied in the seventh in a two-way race.
This is consistent with other findings suggesting that there has been a modest drop-off for Trump since his criminal conviction, though that has been partially offset by increased intensity among Republicans who believe he was railroaded. More troubling for Trump is that Fox found confidence in the economy at a record high under Biden. Still, just 32% of respondents felt that way.
In general, a high third-party vote is believed to benefit Trump by making it easier for him to win with a plurality and splitting any potential anti-Trump coalition. Ballot access could go a long way toward determining how big of an impact third parties have this year.If Trump is still ahead in the battleground states, he is still at the moment favored to win the presidency again even if he has fallen slightly behind Biden nationally.
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