Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of …
This combination of photos shows Vice President Kamala Harris, left, on Aug. 7, 2024 and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump on July 31, 2024. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for
Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.
With President Joe Biden already having taken steps to tighten immigration, Goldman expects a Harris administration to oversee a slowdown in new arrivals to 1.5 million a year — still higher than the pre-pandemic average of around 1 million. A Trump administration would likely prompt a sharper slowdown, to 1.25 million or — if Republicans take Congress and boost resources for enforcement — 750,000 a year.
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