A federal face mask mandate could save the U.S. economy from taking a 5% GDP hit in lieu of additional lockdowns, according to Goldman Sachs.
He first focused on to what extent, if at all, the actual use of face masks reduces the infection rate of Covid-19 by looking at differences in population behavior by state. For example, Hatizus found only about 40% of respondents in Arizona say they "always" wear face masks in public, compared with nearly 80% in Massachusetts.
The results are "large and highly significant" and show that state mask mandates raise the percentage of people who say they "always" or "frequently" wear masks by about 25 percentage points in the 30 days after the government order. Left to right-Daniela Valenzuela, 4, her mother Lorena, 38, sister Sofia, 6, sister Camila, 9, and father, Cesar, 41, wear protective face covering against the coronavirus during a visit to the Santa Monica Pier on June 29, 2020.Critically, Hatizus said wearing face masks appears to have a causal impact on the rate of new Covid-19 infections. These findings are not weakened when controlling for fewer trips in public or avoiding large gatherings.
The investment bank then translated those results into GDP terms by asking how severe any government-imposed lockdowns would have to be to cut infections by 1 percentage point. To do this, Hatzius compared the severity of prior lockdowns in the U.S. to how the American economy has already reacted to state-imposed business closures.
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