Goldman Sachs predicts gradual drop in market volatility, sees buy opportunities
ended last week flat after partially recovering from a steep sell-off that began a week prior and intensified on Monday. The decline was triggered by weak economic data, with factors such as deleveraging, crowding, and poor liquidity likely exacerbating the downturn.of implied volatility spiked to an intraday high of 66 on Aug. 5, a level only surpassed during the March 2020 sell-off and the 2008 Financial Crisis.
In 12 similar episodes since 2000, when Cyclicals lagged Defensives by more than 5 percentage points within a week, it signaled a marked rise in economic growth concerns. Like in the past week, these periods were marked by large spikes in both volatility and correlations. Moving forward, the direction of the equity market will depend on upcoming data releases that clarify the economic outlook, determining whether the market remains macro-focused or shifts back to the micro-driven environment seen in the first half of 2024.While the next jobs report is not due until September 6th, investors will closely watch weekly jobless claims, retail sales, and Walmart 's earnings next Thursday, as well as the labor components of Federal Reserve surveys later this month.
“If economic fears continue to fade and the market becomes more micro-driven in coming months, then the recent sell-off represents an attractive opportunity to buy stocks with healthy fundamentals at valuation discounts,” they added.
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