Goldman Sachs forecasts S&P 500 to hit 6,500 by 2025 end, joining Morgan Stanley
will rise to 6,500 by the end of 2025, a target that implies an 11% upside from current levels. If materialized, this would place the gain in the 46th percentile of historical 12-month returns for the index since 1980.), which also set its base case S&P 500 12-month price target at 6,500. The bank said it expects the recent earnings growth broadening to continue next year “as the Fed cuts rates into next year and business cycle indicators continue to improve.
Furthermore, Goldman estimates net margins will expand to 12.3% in 2025 and then to 12.6% in 2026. The bank’s economics team believes the Trump administration will implement targeted tariffs on imported automobiles and certain imports from China, as well as a 15% corporate tax rate for domestic manufacturers.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs' fair value model suggests a modest compression of the P/E multiple to 21.5x by the end of 2025. In addition, the yield gap between the earnings yield of the S&P 500 and the realThe Wall Street firm cautions that the equity market, which is already pricing in an optimistic macroeconomic backdrop and high valuations, carries risks into 2025.
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