Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebound appears elusive amid firmer United States Treasury yields Gold XAUUSD SEO YieldCurve RiskAversion
Easing banking fears tease XAU/USD sellersand European policymakers stretch emergency credit lines to the troubled banks and announced deposit insurance schemes. Recently adding strength to the risk-on mood were comments from the central bank officials pushing back the banking crisis concerns and the Silicon Valley Bank deal.
Also taming the banking fears, as well as challenging the Gold buyers, are comments from the US Federal Reserve officials and the Treasury Department. “Inflation ‘has started to come down’ with some of that due to tighter monetary policy and some due to other factors such as improving global supply chains,” said Fed’s Jefferson. Further, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr's prepared testimony to Congress also favored the firmer sentiment as it read, “We are prepared to use all of our tools for any size institution as needed to keep the system safe". On the same line were comments from the US Treasury stating that the US will keep using tools to prevent banking contagion as needed.It should be noted, however, that the geopolitical fears surrounding China and Russia also exert downside pressure on the Gold price. That said, talks about China’s failure to keep the pace of growth promised, as well as Russia’s alleged readiness to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. On the same line are the latest comments from North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un who recently stated, per KCNA news, “ Should be fully ready to use nuclear weapons at any time.”Looking ahead, the Gold traders will observe the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence for March, as well as the second-tier housing and activity data, to intraday moves. However, major attention will be given to Wednesday’s Monthly Inflation for Australia and Friday’s Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index.Gold price technical analysis Gold price fails to justify the previous day’s downside break of a one-week-old symmetrical triangle, while grinding higher past the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average . However, bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence indicator, as well as an absence of the oversold Relative Strength Index line, placed at 14, tease XAU/USD bears. While the theoretical target of an aforementioned triangle breakdown highlights the $1,840 level, the 100-EMA and 61.8%retracement level of the Gold price run-up from late February to early March, respectively around $1,927 and $1,882, could prod the XAU/USD bears. On the contrary, a corrective bounce needs validation from the stated triangle’s lower line, close to $1,973 to convince the Gold buyers. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from March 20, forming part of the triangle near the $2,000 psychological magnet, will gain the Gold buyer’s attention. Also acting as an upside filter for the XAU/USD price is the monthly high surrounding $2,010, a break of which could propel the precious metal towards the previous yearly top of near $2,070.
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