Gold prices are slipping as US yields – both nominal and real – rise again. It remains the case that until gold prices break the downtrend from the March and August swing highs, any rally should be viewed with caution.
The gold price rally that began to develop in the second half of the month is faltering as October comes to a close. A rebound in US yields – both nominal and real – is weighing on precious metals, a theme that has been consistent for much of 2022. Signs of a technical turnaround,, are not finding much follow through at present time.
“Until the second condition is fulfilled – the multi-month downtrend breaks – then the double bottom potential remains constrained. Patience is needed, but it remains the case that a move above the area around 1680 by the end of October would see gold prices trade back above former multi-month support and break the downtrend in place from the March and August highs.”
Momentum is staring to turn more bearish again, highlighting the increased potential for a return to the yearly lows. Gold prices are below their daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which is aligned in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD has issued a bearish crossover while below its signal line, and daily Slow Stochastics have started to turn lower after failing their signal line.
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