Nature research paper: Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves
, including it is non-degenerate, meaning that it does not trend towards a meaningless limit as event rarity increases, it is base-rate independent, meaning that it is not influenced by changes in the frequency of events, and it is equitable, meaning its expected value is the same for random forecasts, regardless of what method is used to generate the random forecasts$${\rm{SEDI}}=\frac{{\rm{\log }}F-{\rm{\log }}H-{\rm{loglog}}\left+{\rm{\log }}}{{\rm{\log }}F+{\rm{\log...
For completeness, we also calculate two additional forecast skill metrics: the Brier skill score and forecast accuracy. The Brier score is an estimate of the mean square error of the probabilistic forecast:is the total number of forecasts being evaluated,is the observed probability, which is either zero or one . The Brier skill score normalizes the Brier score relative to the skill of a reference forecast :Here the reference forecast is simply the climatological rate of MHW occurrence .
Forecast accuracy is included as a common and easily understandable skill metric; it is simply the fraction of forecasts that are correct:For events that occur on average 10% of the time, the forecast accuracy for random forecasts is 0.82. Thus, MHW forecast accuracy above 0.82 indicates skill better than random chance.
Significance of forecast skill metrics is quantified using a Monte Carlo simulation with block bootstrapping. Specifically, for a given grid cell we calculate the MHW decorrelation time scale,from the observed MHW time series and concatenate them to create a forecast of length 360 months . This process is repeated to create 1,000 random forecasts, and forecast skill is calculated for each one.
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide - NatureInteraction between climate warming and intensive agricultural land use is associated with reductions in insect abundance and species richness, which can be mitigated by nearby natural habitats in low-intensity agricultural settings.
Read more »
Chicagoans get another chance to break records and contribute to research in global nature challengeParticipation requires submitting a photo of a plant, animal or fungi to the citizen science platform iNaturalist during the competition period.
Read more »
Opening of glutamate receptor channel to subconductance levels - NatureCryo-EM structures of AMPA receptor with the subunit γ2 in non-desensitizing conditions at low glutamate concentrations disprove the one-to-one link between the number of glutamate-bound subunits and ionotropic glutamate receptor conductance.
Read more »
Somatic genomic changes in single Alzheimer’s disease neurons - NatureAnalyses of single-cell whole-genome sequencing data show that somatic mutations are increased in the brain of individuals with Alzheimer’s disease compared to neurotypical individuals, with a pattern of genomic damage distinct from that of normal ageing.
Read more »
The Multi-Faceted Nature of SelfhoodResearchers think our inner identities are composed of several layers, though it isn't yet clear how exactly they operate. Find out more in one of our latest articles. Click the link below.
Read more »
Netflix Estimates 100 Million Households Are Sharing Passwords and Suggests a Global Crackdown Is ComingNetflix has been willing to turn a blind eye toward password sharing when it was growing subscribers, but losing customers can change behavior quickly.
Read more »