MANILA (Philippine Daily Inquirer): Consumer prices in the Philippines and its economic growth stand to benefit from lower global oil prices, which UK-based Oxford Economics said may serve as a “modest” offset to the adverse impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.
“Under the current period of extreme uncertainty, the economic boost from a decline in oil prices will be modest. Relative to previous oil price collapses, monetary authorities will find it difficult to respond to the negative demand shock as deflationary pressures mount, ” Oxford Economics economists Gabriel Sterne and Luka Raznatovic said in a March 10 report titled “Weak oil a modest global offset to coronavirus impact.
Besides the Philippines, the other economies that could be big “winners” from an oil price slump would be China, India, Indonesia and Argentina, while Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates , Mexico, Australia, Norway, Romania and Malaysia shall be the “losers, ” Oxford Economics said. At a $30-per-barrel oil price scenario, inflation in the Philippines would be reduced by about 0.9 ppt from baseline.
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