COVID-related mortality rates by country for 2020 and 2021.
estimated the number of excess deaths that occurred in every country in the world in 2020 and 2021. Here, countries are grouped according to their income level . The authors made their estimates using monthly, country-level data on the total number of deaths where available. However, they had to make estimates of excess deaths from incomplete data for most countries. For some, data were available for only certain months or as annual data.
However, the authors’ estimates must be interpreted with extreme caution. This is because only 37% of countries had complete data for the number of people who died from any cause in each month of 2020 and 2021 — an essential figure for accurately calculating excess mortality. There were no data at all for 43% of countries; 2% of countries had data for only some regions; 5% had only annual data; and 13% had incomplete monthly series. The availability of data is heavily correlated with income.
As a result, the authors had to make some problematic inferences. First, for countries that lacked data in some regions, they had to scale death counts from subnational to national levels. This assumes a constant share of deaths between regions before and during the pandemic. But the spread, timing and severity of COVID-19 within countries was far from uniform
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