Stability is critical for success in the three key transitions Eskom needs to navigate, argues University of Pretoria professor of technology management David Richard Walwyn.
All of Eskom’s 15 power stations are in breach of the Minimum Emission Standard, and Eskom has beenby the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment to scale down the emissions or shut its power stations.
De Ruyter has been attempting to address the question of energy sustainability by closing and repurposing old coal-based power plants, unbundling the company, and raising funds for the just transition and decarbonisation of electricity generation.A future of power cuts The CEO’s departure signals a deepening crisis in terms of scheduled power cuts. The country is now suffering regular rolling blackouts, and must adapt to a routine, leaving a generation shortfall of 4 GW to 5 GW. Since only 66% of Eskom’s demand side is subject to power cuts – the national key points which consume 33% of the total demand are untouched by loadshedding – this means 6 to 8 hours per day of no power for the average consumer.
Infrastructure investment of this nature is a 20-year decision – that’s how long it takes for investment of this nature to pay. This means that large users will not be returning to the grid any time soon. Based on the present trends, my prediction is that within two years, the customer base will contract by 30%. Of the 18 GW customer base subject to power cuts, at least one half will find alternative energy supplies, either directly or through private utility companies.Top of my list is to cleanse the sector of the “energy Mafia” which profits from sabotage and rent-seeking, and regain control of the captured power stations.
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