Germany: Core inflation dynamics might remain strong for now – Deutsche Bank – by MSalordFX Germany Inflation Banks
r Economist at Deutsche Bank, the downward surprise is largely explained by the unexpected energy price drop. He warns that core inflation dynamics might remain strong for now.“Today's downward CPI surprise has further nourished hopes that the inflation peak might be near . However, we reckon that the lower-than-expected November print for the year-over-year CPI inflation rate can be largely attributed to the unexpected drop in the CPI energy price component .
“Overall, we expect the CPI inflation rate to reach a high 8.1% in 2022 before easing to around 7.5% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024. That said, we expect that the introduction of the "energy price brakes" for gas, district heating and electricity in early 2023 are set to considerably dampen household energy prices and hence headline inflation.”
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