A lot has changed since Stacey Abrams’s first run for governor of Georgia. The national environment is less auspicious for Democrats due to Joe Biden’s unpopularity and discontent over inflation
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThere is one problem with Ms Abrams’s irresistible rise, though. She might lose to Mr Kemp once again—by a larger margin than four years ago. As of October 12th the prediction from FiveThirtyEight, an election-prognostication outfit, is that Ms Abrams will lose by six points and has only a 1-in-7 chance of victory. That might surprise those who recall Georgia turning blue only two years later .
To Ms Abrams, this credit is excessive. “He simply didn’t commit treason. We should not lionise someone for not being an arsonist. You’re not supposed to burn the house down,” she says. “My deep concern is that his failure to commit treason once has obfuscated his very intentional and long-standing voter suppression.” Ms Abrams refused to concede her election loss in 2018.
This debate is at the core of Ms Abrams’ theory of change. The formidable turnout machine that she built, which Republicans only belatedly appreciated the power of, has been credited with turning Georgia blue. Progressives often argue that victory can be achieved through attracting young Americans and non-white voters who respond to bold policy ideas and frequent engagement. As successful as Ms Abrams was, increased non-white turnout cannot fully explain the gradual Democratic tilt of the state.
Herschel Walker, a former American football legend at the University of Georgia who won the Heisman Trophy for player of the year, has run the most disastrous campaign of the year. Aside from a shaky grasp of policy that borders on absurdism , Mr Walker has been beset by one scandal after another. The latest is an allegation that he paid for an abortion more than a decade ago, despite his stated opposition to abortion even in cases of rape and incest.
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