“Wagner has been one of Russia’s most successful foreign-policy initiatives during the past decade,” they write in a guest essay, but the group’s “perceived instability at the moment presents an unprecedented opportunity”
on June 24th, speculation has grown about what will become of Russia’s notorious paramilitary company and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Amid reports of President Vladimir Putin poking around Wagner’s assets and troop deployments, and with the status and whereabouts ofhimself cloaked in mystery, the future of the group—and its extensive business empire—is unclear.
This strategy—used in different forms in Libya, Mali, Sudan and elsewhere—serves Russia’s interests in several ways. A relatively small number of mercenaries helps expand the country’s global influence on the cheap, offering the Russian government implausible deniability as it supports pariah regimes and warlords with overwhelming force.
In short, in whatever potentially modified form, the Wagner virus will live on. And the confusion of the current moment provides an ideal opportunity for America and the international community at large to take action against both the operation and its originator. America, the European Union and other allies should focus on holding Wagner financially and legally accountable. They should create an ad hoc coalition aimed at dismantling the group’s business empire, building on lessons from similar efforts focused on Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
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