Peering into the future is not for the faint-hearted, but we have done it anyway. It turns out that next year might not be as bad as some expect it to be — though it could be for Vladimir Putin.
If woman can survive, they may find…
Winter in the northern hemisphere – from December 2022 on to March 2023 – was a very dry one, with record-low levels of snow pack in the Rocky and Sierra Nevada Mountains. Nonetheless, the relatively mild temperatures of that winter generated early bursts of brush and ground cover. But, in summer, that brush dried out and became tinder for seasonal fires.
Meanwhile, vast jungle fires continued to be set in the Amazon Basin by informal settlers and ranchers, and even from natural conditions, despite changes in national policy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The massive fires also fed disastrous atmospheric conditions as strong winds drove soot and smoke towards the capital of Brasilia and the country’s coastal urban areas.
Writing in Foreign Affairs in November 2022, international economist Mohamed El-Erian had already warned of fundamental shifts in the global economic landscape. As he wrote, “The longer households, companies, and governments fail to recognise and respond to the structural shifts taking place in the global economic and financial system, the harder it will be to mitigate the risks and to seize the opportunities associated with these changes.
By the second year of the war, it was clear Russia’s military leadership cadre – tired of the constant replacement of its frontline generals – had had enough of the costs that were resulting from Vladimir Putin’s war of choice. It was a war with no clear objectives other than destroying a nation their leader insisted was an integral part of Russia.
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