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The red-hot economic growth in the third quarter remains on track to decelerate sharply in the final three months of the year, based on the median nowcast via a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
The longer the slower nowcast persists, the more reliable the estimate will be in terms of aligning with the actual number, which is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late January. Even if the US avoids the start of a recession in Q4, a slowdown – if it’s substantial – would raise warning flags for 2024.
Although the Sahm indicator for October doesn’t signal a recession has started, it’s getting close to a level that marks the start of contraction.“If you lose the labor market, you lose consumers, and if we lose consumers we’re done because they’re two-thirds of the US economy,”
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