GBP/JPY has unfolded a recovery rally since the August 5 lows.
GBP/JPY’s August rally is running out of steam and risks reversing lower. It has sold off steeply from the September peak and broken below a key level. Further weakness is required to confirm a bearish reversal. Since then it has risen from a low of 180.09 to a peak of 193.49 reached on September 2. This almost month-long rally is now showing signs of weakness, however, which indicate the risk of a reversal lower is growing.
The Relative Strength Index momentum indicator has fallen to 37.77 and is showing the momentum which accompanied the sell-off from the peak was strong. Although these signs suggest a bearish reversal is developing they are not quite enough to be confident. The pair needs to fall lower to be more certain. Ideally it should fall below 189.50 to confirm a new bear trend was underway. Such a move would probably follow-through down to an initial target at 188.24 .
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