I do some futures forecasting and layout a timeline of how today's AI gets advanced to reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) by the year 2040. Where will you be?
In today’s column, I am continuing my special series on the likely pathways that will get us from conventional AI to the avidly sought attainment of AGI . AGI would be a type of AI that is fully on par with human intellect in all respects. I’ve previously outlined seven major paths that seem to be the most probable routes of advancing AI to reach AGI or maybe even the outstretched possibility of achieving artificial superintelligence .
Should you be swayed by the AI luminaries or more so by the AI experts and their scientific consensus? Besides the scientific consensus of AI experts, another newer and more expansive approach to gauging when AGI will be achieved is known as AGI convergence-of-evidence or AGI consilience, which I discuss atAs mentioned, in a previous posting I identified seven major pathways that AI is going to advance to become AGI . The most often presumed path is the incremental progression trail. The AI industry tends to refer to this as the linear path. It is essentially slow and steady.
All in all, this strawman that I show here is primarily meant to get the juices flowing on how we can be future forecasting the state of AI. It is a conjecture. It is speculative. But at least it has a reasonable basis and is not entirely arbitrary or totally artificial.
Artificial General Intelligence AGI Artificial Superintelligence ASI Sentience Consciousness Personhood Legal Law Ethics Social Impacts Policies Generative AI Large Language Models LLM Future Forecast Futurecast Prediction
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