The Keystone State saw nail-biters in both the 2016 and 2020 elections and looks to be headed for a repeat this November.
Former President Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential race by less than a percentage point, while President Joe Biden squeaked out his 2020 win by just over a point. In the presumptive 2024 re-match, Trump has a narrow edge over Biden among Pennsylvania registered voters, according to the latest Fox News Poll released Wednesday. That 2-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error. Biden held a campaign event near Philadelphia on March 8 and Trump last visited in February.
Biden sees his strongest support from nonwhite voters , White voters with a college degree , suburban women , and those ages 65 and over . For Trump, it is White evangelical Christians , White men without a college degree , rural voters , and Gen Xers . Both candidates have mostly locked down voters from their own parties, as roughly 9 in 10 Democrats and Republicans support their party’s presumed nominee. In a potential 5-way matchup, the race is a tie, with Biden and Trump getting 42% apiece.
Conducted March 7-11, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research , this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,149 Pennsylvania registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines and cellphones or completed the survey online after receiving a text message . Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.