Need to Know: Beware a head fake in rosy Chinese data, says UBS chief economist
But the quarter may be off to a decent start, no foolin’ after a batch of better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data. Equities around the world are climbing, while bonds yields are rising after China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index saw the biggest jump since 2012, which could be a sign that stimulus efforts from the government are starting to pay off. beating forecasts.
“The problem we have here is this is not real economic data, this is sentiment data,” Donovan told MarketWatch in an interview Monday. Firstly, he says, the correlation between sentiment and real data is far weaker than it was 10 years ago, and part of that is due to the fact that fewer people and companies fill in surveys like the PMI.
The economist sees no meltdown for global growth this year, but just a coming back to a trend like rate, with the consumer holding up and supported by strong labor markets. “The main area of weakness is companies delaying or referring investment,” he said. “If we get the deal on U.S. and China trade then companies delaying investment will be more willing to invest.”
The chart Is the S&P on the cusp of a bullish breakout? Our chart of the day from Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, has spotted a so-called golden cross for the index, which is a bullish chart pattern that occurs when the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day. It generally points to a move higher for stocks.
Amazing work by Tesla Delivery teams, especially in Europe & China! Most insane logistics challenge I’ve ever seen. Thanks also to many country & city officials for your help this weekend! Super appreciated.
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