For Star subscribers: Forecasters predict a late start to the summer storm cycle across Southern Arizona, and that could mean a drier, hotter monsoon this year. Here's what to know.
Henry Brean Monsoon season starts in less than a week, but desert dwellers might have to wait a while longer for the actual rain to roll in.
Crimmins said a “weird trough of low pressure hanging around” in recent weeks has kept Tucson's temperatures in the double digits for the most part, but it has also prevented the formation of the high pressure ridge that helps give rise to our monsoon storms. “This could all go down the tubes,” said Crimmins, who is a professor and extension specialist in the UA’s Department of Environmental Science.
The regional flood agency has also installed two new live cameras along washes in the Catalina Mountains to watch for increased flooding as a result of the Bighorn Fire, which burned across the range in 2020, scorching vegetation that once absorbed water and reduced erosion. El Niño developingClimate forecasters are also tracking the development of a potentially powerful El Niño, the tropical ocean climate phenomenon that typically brings winter rains to the Southwest.
Crimmins said another wet winter on the heels of last year’s near-historic snow accumulations throughout parts of the West would do wonders for water supplies and lingering drought conditions, especially in Arizona and the six other states that rely on the Colorado River. Crimmins doesn’t expect anything like that to happen again this year. Monsoon 2023 might show up late, he said, but “it will happen, I promise.”
“We’re running it back again,” said Zack Guido, one of the game’s organizers and an assistant research professor at the UA’s Arizona Institute for Resilience.
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