Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have increased their prediction for the remainder of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of tropical cyclone activity to an above-normal level of activity due to record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that are expected to counterbalance the conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event in the Pacific.
, but forecasters cautioned there was greater uncertainty due to global climate patterns being in flux.is strengthening across the Pacific Ocean, and that normally means fewer tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean. However, forecasters are concerned that isn't the case this year.
There have already been five named storms in the Atlantic Ocean, including the season's first hurricane – Don. The tropical activity seen so far this season and historically warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean could be indications that the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season might end up being busier than average.
During typical El Niño years, activity in the Atlantic is reduced due to increased vertical wind shear and cooler water temperatures. That has not yet been observed across large parts of the Atlantic.
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