Russia is hyping the possibility of Ukrainian attacks against its Victory Day celebrations on Tuesday. Victory Day serves as Russia’s annual celebration of the Allied victory in World War II.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, built up the tension, claiming on Monday that the Kremlin is taking"all necessary measures" to protect the celebrations. The events carry special significance in that the peoples of the Soviet Union suffered massive losses against the Nazis. Russia lost more than 10% of its population between 1941-1945, with Belarus losing a stunning 25% of its population.
Peskov sought to bolster this narrative, claiming,"This year, it is also especially important [to celebrate Victory Day] because, one way or another, we are still dealing with manifestations of Nazism." In the same manner, last week’s apparent drone attack on the Kremlin may have been conducted by Russia as a so-called"false flag" incident designed to increase Russian support for the war.
First, it is Ukrainian rather than Russian forces that hold the clear strategic initiative. A looming Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to take significant advantage of Russia’s deep vulnerability in force levels and organization, its inadequate ammunition and equipment supplies, and the poor morale of its personnel. Put simply, victory in Ukraine is not on Russia’s horizon.
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