WASHINGTON — In the first weeks of the first major European land war of the 21st century, the United States has sent tank-killing weapons to Ukrainian forces, but not fighter jets. It is equipping embattled Ukrainian troops with lightweight “kamikaze” attack drones, but not, at least in an obvious way, conducting an aggressive cyberwar to degrade Russia’s technological advantage. The White House will commit no U.S. or NATO planes to the skies above Ukraine, a move U.S. officials fear could risk
U.S. President Joe Biden signs a delegation authority for funds to aid the Ukrainian military, at the White House in Washington, March 16, 2022.
The balancing act informs every aspect of U.S. policy about the war, including the scope of the punishing sanctions imposed on the Russian economy, the granularity of the battlefield intelligence provided to Ukrainian troops, the killing power of the weapons systems coming over the border and whether, as Biden did this past week, to label President Vladimir Putin of Russia as a war criminal.
U.S. intelligence about Putin’s decision-making is maddeningly imprecise, and the West does not have a strong track record predicting what he might consider an aggression that cannot be tolerated. CIA Director William Burns told Congress this month that Putin’s views had “hardened over the years.” Administration officials have said the move would be “escalatory,” and, according to people briefed on the exchanges, the lawmakers asked the generals if there was any hard intelligence that the jets might push Putin toward intensifying the conflict by treating the United States as a “co-belligerent” in the war.
Some U.S. officials assert that as a matter of international law, the provision of weaponry and intelligence to the Ukrainian army has made the United States a co-belligerent, an argument that some legal experts dispute. But while Putin has made threats about launching attacks to impede the military assistance, he has not yet acted to stop it by attacking bases in neighboring countries — NATO allies — where the equipment originates.
Unlike the large Predator and Reaper drones used for decades in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries, the portable drones pose no threat to Russian soil. Still, the White House authorized an initial shipment of only 100 of them to Ukraine — a small batch that could be intended to see how Putin reacts to their deployment on the Ukrainian front lines. Depending on the response, hundreds or thousands more could be on the way.
At the same time, the upside for Turkey could be substantial: It was suspended by the Trump administration from the F-35 fighter program — in which it was a buyer and a manufacturer of parts for the advanced aircraft — after its purchase of the Russian S-400s. A deal to send the anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine could open the door to reentry into the F-35 program.
Until the invasion began, U.S. Cyber Command had a unit based in Kyiv that was helping the government fend off attacks. It is now operating from a nearby NATO country. There is fragmentary evidence that the United States and its allies worked to counter some of the attacks and to prevent others from being launched. But action seems to have been limited.
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