In case you thought anybody in Washington was driving this thing, they are not.
It’s official: the Department of Treasury is now issuing debt at pandemic levels. It’s worth noting the pandemic record was double the previous record, which had stood for 231 years. In raw numbers, the latest numbers for Q4 2023 show Treasury issued $7 trillion in new debt. For the entire year, it came to $23 trillion. This has bloated the Treasury market to $27 trillion -- up 60% since the pandemic. In other words, one-third of Treasuries have fresh ink on them.
This is false, of course: A Treasury is a promise from Uncle Sam to pay you back someday, perhaps 20 or 30 years in the future. This means that, unlike cash, any concerns investors might have about Uncle Sam's ability -- or willingness -- to pay can crash Treasuries. If that happens it immediately sends the entire banking system, pension system, and hundreds of corporations into default.
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