One increasingly glaring problem with rating extreme rainfall events in terms of their historical likelihood is that the changing climate has rendered such scales woefully out of date.
"If you build a statistical model based on a climate that no longer exists, it's not going to be too surprising that it fails," UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain, who also consults foron real estate nationwide, told Yahoo News. Most"hydrologic models and the Army Corps of Engineers" do not factor in the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, which describes the increase in atmospheric moisture that results from every degree of temperature rise, into their modeling, Swain added.
"Precipitation in the Midwest is expected to become more intense, leading to increased flood damage, strained drainage systems, and reduced drinking water availability,"But the other major aspect of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation is that warmer temperatures dramatically speed up evaporation rates so that even when a region sees an uptick in the amount of annual precipitation, it remains susceptible to drought.
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