Game-by-game picks as Illinois seeks to finish its national championship run in Indianapolis
The NCAA Tournament has already taken most of its victims. Brackets are busted – many brutally so – and national title aspirations have come and gone like a ship passing in the night.Illinois, UConn, Arizona and Michigan remain alive and well in the Big Dance – but only one of those clubs will be left standing at the end of this coming Monday night.
Which team will make that claim? We make our predictions for each Final Four game and the national title below:Nov 28, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic is guarded by UConn Huskies forward Alex Karaban in the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn ImagesBoth of these teams entered the NCAA Tournament in fairly similar situations. UConn had just been blasted by 20 against St. John’s in the Big East Tournament, while Illinois had lost five of its past nine – including a quarterfinal loss in the Big Ten Tournament. Neither squad was exactly humming along with the wind at its back, yet both wound up in the Final Four. NowBut Illinois is a different animal this time around. Boasting the top offense in the country, along with a defense that has been unrecognizably stout in the NCAA Tournament, the Illini are firing on all cylinders on both sides of the floor. As for UConn, it remains a similar, albeit sharper, version of its early-season self. A combination of solid personnel and top-notch coaching have sustained a suffocating defense, while the offense – although solid – sometimes struggle to find answers. In the tournament, though, big man Tarris Reed Jr. has emerged as a breakout star, averaging 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. The rest of the crew has stepped up at times, but no other Huskies player has been nearly as consistent in recent weeks. Dan Hurley’s club has embodied the March mantra of “survive and advance." But although it may do the former for quite a while on Saturday night, the latter seems to be an unlikely outcome for this UConn team that has been dancing with the end of its season for long enough.Michigan guard Elliot Cadeau and forward Yaxel Lendeborg watch a play against Tennessee during the first half of NCAA Tournament Elite 8 round at United Center in Chicago on Sunday, March 29, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images A pair of brutally physical – not to mention tremendously balanced – clubs meet in this Final Four matchup that many have dubbed as the de facto national championship game. Michigan and Arizona are connected at the hip in every advanced metric imaginable – and for good reason. The Wolverines feature the No. 1 defense , anchored by big man Aday Mara, who has been one of college basketball's most visibly effective individual defenders in quite some time. Yaxel Lendeborg, the Big Ten’s Player of the Year, remains a basketball Swiss Army Knife who seemingly decided to flip a switch and become a dynamite scorer during the Big Dance, as well. Freshman Trey McKenney has taken on a larger role in the absence of L.J. Cason – and he has done so without a hitch. The list goes on for Michigan. Every Wolverines player in the rotation seems to be playing their best ball of 2025-26 – which saysAs for Arizona, one question arises: How did the Wildcats lose a game this year? Michigan has been prone to lapses and has battled some injury woes, but Arizona hasn’t let up all year. Save for the two-game skid in February, Arizona hasn’t lost a game in this campaign. Two freshmen – Brayden Burries and Koa Peat – lead the Wildcats in scoring, but Jaden Bradley is arguably the heartbeat of the team. Motiejus Krivas is an absolute load in the interior, and then there is fellow big man Tobe Awake snagging 9.1 rebounds in just 20.9 minutes . Dominant on the boards, unbelievably well-rounded and playing with metronome-level consistency, Arizona is every bit a juggernaut. But so is Michigan. And with both teams currently operating at their best, it’s hard not to lean in the Wolverines’ direction.Feb 27, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. drives the ball against Illinois Fighting Illini forward Ben Humrichhous during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn ImagesChampaign saw Morez Johnson Jr.’s much-anticipated homecoming in late February – and it was an absolute dud ... for the Illini, that is. The Wolverines wiped them all over the State Farm Center floor, to the tune of an But as mentioned back in the Illinois-UConn preview, this Illini squad is an entirely different unit. Coach Brad Underwood suddenly has his defense operating at an extremely high level.in the second half in the Elite Eight. Houston, a top-15 offense in KenPom, managed to go just 22-of-64 from the field. Then, there’s the glass. Both Arizona and Michigan are tremendous on the boards, but there isn’t a better rebounding team in this four-team field than Illinois – and, at this current juncture, the margin is fairly wide. At the same time, Michigan is, quite simply, a better team. There's no getting around it. The Wolverines, who have an exceptional group of one-on-one defenders, are also a team designed to give the high-powered Illini offense trouble. Even if the battle of the boards leans in Illinois’ directionthe defense manages to suffocate Michigan – both of which are real possibilities – it will likely require some hot shooting from the Illini to prevail in this one. Can it happen? Of course. But it’s no longer March. In April, true colors are revealed and champions are crowned. And this 2025-26 Michigan team, which is a force the Big Ten hasn’t seen in ages, has all the makings of a champion.Primarily covers Illinois football and basketball, and Kansas basketball, with an emphasis on analysis, features and recruiting. Langendorf, a third-generation University of Illinois alum, has been watching Illini basketball and football for as long as he can remember. An advertising student and journalism devotee, he has been writing for On SI since October 2024. He can be followed and reached on X @jglangendorf.
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