The escalating coronavirus outbreak is giving the U.S. Federal Reserve a policy ...
WASHINGTON/SAN FRANCISCO - The escalating coronavirus outbreak is giving the U.S. Federal Reserve a policy headache like never before: how to judge the potential impact on the economy in the absence of reliable data on how fast the flu-like illness is spreading across the United States.
Instead, the Fed is turning to new methods to assess the likely spread and get a read on local responses as policymakers weigh what further action may be needed in the days and weeks ahead. These snapshots could quickly show whether the American consumer, the engine of U.S. growth, is pulling back. But assessing how long that could last relies on a good grasp of the outbreak’s escalation.
But an accurate reading remains elusive. The Trump administration has been criticized for its slow response and the short supply of test kits. The number of U.S. cases of coronavirus grew to 761 on Tuesday, including 27 deaths, with fast-growing concentrations in cities like Seattle, San Francisco and New York.
“The amount of extra information that they’ll have in the next few days, until these tests are widely available, is going to be minimal,” said Mac Hyman, a professor of mathematics at Tulane University, who is an expert in epidemic modeling. Global stock markets have tumbled as investors fret about the coronavirus causing a world recession, and roughly $6 trillion of U.S. market value has been wiped out so far. Financial markets are predicting another big interest rate cut over the next week even though estimates on the hit to the U.S. economy vary widely.
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