February's employment report is expected to show strong job and wage growth, and could signal that the economy's slower growth in the first quarter is just a speed bump rather than a sign of trouble.
div > div.group > p:first-child"> The economy was expected to have added 180,000 jobs in February, and unemployment is expected to drop by a tenth to 3.9 percent. That is well below the 304,000 jobs added in January, but economists still expect a solid report. Wage growth is expected to strengthen, rising 0.3 percent, up from January's 0.1 percent.
The first quarter appears to be much slower than the fourth quarter, but economists are still frustrated by the lack of data, which was delayed by the government shutdown. For instance, January's retail sales will be released on Monday, much later than normal. That number is particularly important after the sharp surprising drop in December retail sales.
Many economists see growth of less than 2 percent in the first quarter but a bounce back in the second quarter as the economy shakes off the effects of the 35-day government shutdown and bad winter weather. The economy could also move beyond the drag from trade issues later in the year if there is a trade agreement between the U.S. and China and an end to tariffs.
Goldman Sachs economists are less optimistic about February's job growth, and expect only 150,000 jobs, the slowest pace in five months."We believe the trend in job growth has likely slowed from the 232k average pace of the last six months, and we also expect a drag of at least 40k from above-average snowfall during the February survey week," they wrote in a note.
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