The world order is fracturing, and new faultlines are emerging. Here are 3 that will preoccupy investors in September:
This is my first column as a Forbes contributor, where my aim is write about the world outside America for a largely American audience. In this note I would like to give readers a sense of where I am coming from and the ideas and financial themes, I think are interesting.
My sense, which is now reinforced daily by events such as the trade war, is that globalization as we have come to know it over the past thirty years is coming to an end and will be replaced by a multipolar world. The road to this will be strewn with economic obstacles – such as the fact that central banks play too big a role in markets and economies, and that debt levels are too high.
The second element in the fracturing of the world order relates to geographic areas and/or nation states. A number of them are increasingly making the news and are beginning to cause market ripples.
As it stands some commentators are focusing on the Hong Kong dollar peg as a source of volatility. I am not so sure – only a major political event such as a Chinese takeover of Hong Kong could push the peg to the top of its range. A more obvious Hong Kong contagion play might be the Chinese currency itself, with a long yen trade as an additional way of expressing risk aversion in Asia.
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