Two farmers’ almanacs say this winter will be cold and snowy, but NOAA, the top U.S. weather agency, disagrees
People swear by farmers’ almanacs. Every autumn these publications arrive with their eclectic mix of miscellany and lore. They also deliver a region-by-region weather forecast for an entire year, notably the coming winter, which everyone from farmers to city dwellers can plan their businesses and lives around. There are actually two competing almanacs: the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
“We don’t guarantee the forecast 100 percent, but I don’t know who does,” Duncan says. “I think people appreciate being prepared. Even when we’re off, they give us a little more leeway.” The widespread interest in forecasts that stretch ever farther into the future is particularly evident as the temperatures in North America start to drop and visions of the coming winter begin to dance in people’s head. Whether we are dreaming of a white Christmas, dreading another season of shoveling snow or just hoping for a break from a scorching southern summer, few of us manage to be apathetic about what winter will bring.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims an overall accuracy of about 80 percent for its winter forecasts; its staff calculates this based on whether they accurately predict the direction of departure from normal for precipitation and temperature in one city for each region they evaluate. The Farmers’ Almanac doesn’t publish a similar statistic but reviews its predictions each year to highlight its forecasting victories and defeats.
This year’s prediction—as anyone’s would be—is highly influenced by the current El Niño, a climate state that occurs when the tropical waters of the eastern Pacific are warmer than usual, with consequences felt around the globe. Duncan says Weatherbee does incorporate insight from the U.S. federal government’s predictors. “The newest advance would be that we will look at outlooks by NOAA and the Climatic Prediction Center just to make tweaks,” she says.
Farmers' Almanacs Weather Forecasting Autumn Publications Lore Region-By-Region Forecast Winter Planning Businesses Lives
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