The Rams' Matthew Stafford hasn’t shown the upside we’d hoped for yet, but it’s coming. The volume is certainly there — he ranks third in pass attempts per game (37.8) and leads the league in air yards per game (328.5), while LA has the sixth-highest pass rate plus pass rate over expectation (62.7%).
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams celebrates his rushing touchdown with quarterback Matthew Stafford during the second half of an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, in Inglewood, Calif. Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison is tackled by Minnesota Vikings defensive end Dean Lowry during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, in Chicago.
— Matthew Stafford hasn’t shown the upside we’d hoped for yet, but it’s coming. The volume is certainly there — he ranks third in pass attempts per game and leads the league in air yards per game , while LA has the sixth-highest pass rate plus pass rate over expectation . The biggest issue has been a lack of touchdowns . A home date with Pittsburgh could remedy that as the Steelers have given up the sixth-most passing touchdowns per game .
— Deshaun Watson ’s status remains up in the air, but if he plays, I’m looking to start him. The Colts have allowed the fifth-highest passing success rate , the eighth-highest EPA per drop-back , and the fourth-most quarterback rushing yards . The previous time we saw Watson, he’d just finished one of the best games of his Cleveland career in a 21.2-point week against the Titans. He’s someone to keep your eye on as Sunday inches closer, but I’d have no issue starting him if he plays.
— Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt formed a pretty effective committee last week in a tough spot against an elite D and without their quarterback. Ford played more snaps and handled more rushes than Hunt , but Hunt finished with more fantasy points thanks to a touchdown. I prefer Ford’s volume, but either makes for a fine start this week against a Colts defense allowing the ninth-most adjusted fantasy points per carry .
— Jeff Wilson & Salvon Ahmed won’t both have much value as Miami’s No. 2 running back, but one of them will. Ahmed delivered in Week 6 — a late score propelled him to an RB19 finish with 10.9 points — but I’m more into Wilson. He could immediately step back into a timeshare with Raheem Mostert. The Eagles are good against the run, but the Dolphins are matchup-proof. Wilson is an easy FLEX if healthy, with Ahmed filling that void if Wilson were to miss again.
— Elijah Mitchell & Jordan Mason are only viable if Christian McCaffrey is ruled out. If McCaffrey were to miss this week, Mason would be my go-to. He’s healthier than Mitchell and has consecutive top-25 finishes thanks to a pair of touchdowns in the past two weeks. That said, the Vikings have been around league-average against the run, so neither would be worth starting if McCaffrey is active.
— Tyler Allgeier doesn’t have any upside this week in fantasy. He’s primarily used in positive game scripts, but the Falcons are slight underdogs in Tampa. Throw in that the Bucs have allowed the fifth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry , and there are certainly better options on your waiver wire.
— Terry McLaurin bounced back in Week 7, finishing as a top 36 wide receiver for just the third time this season. Still, it was encouraging that he had a season-high 11 targets , and he’s now eclipsed a 20% target share in three of his past four outings. The Giants have allowed the highest wide receiver target rate in the league, simultaneously giving up the second-most yards per route run . McLaurin is right on that WR2/WR3 line.
— George Pickens & Diontae Johnson aren’t a duo I’m putting much trust into this week. Pickens was impressive with Johnson out as he led the team with a 28.9% target share from Weeks 2-5. While Pickens was the WR13 over that span, he had a four-point game in Week 4. With Johnson back at practice, the Steelers passing attack should look a lot different. The 27-year-old has long been a strong target option for the Steelers, but Pickens has the makings of a future star.
— Michael Thomas & Rashid Shaheed fall into the same range on a weekly basis. Thomas is as consistent as they come. He’s had at least four receptions and 45 yards in every game but hasn’t finished higher than WR31 in fantasy. Shaheed has caught just four-plus passes in two games but has a pair of top-12 finishes to his name. The Jags have a decent secondary, but both New Orleans wideouts are fine FLEX plays. Just know what you’re getting into given their roles.
— Jerry Jeudy had his snap share drop from 89.5% in Week 5 to 65.3% in Week 6. He’s not someone I’m interested in starting, especially not against a sound Packers secondary.
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