An all-encompassing look at the matchups to exploit or avoid and lineup locks in fantasy, as well as projected scores for all NFL games.
Daniel Dopp, Field Yates, and Mike Clay discuss why Javonte Williams is a top-10 fantasy running back heading into Week 5. Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame.
His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on"Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices. Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week. All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings , although I'll often mention"shallow" or"deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs."Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense. Stafford hasn't cleared 112 rushing yards in a season since 2016 and has one rushing TD during the span. At age 37, that's not going to change any time soon., Stafford will occasionally be worth streaming consideration , but that's not the case this week against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards and fantasy points to QBs. Stafford is no more than a low-ceiling QB2.returned from suspension and played 96% of Minnesota's offensive snaps in Week 4. The 2023 first-round pick was targeted nine times and turned it into four catches for 114 yards. Addison has now seen at least eight targets in eight of his past 10 games tracing back to last season, averaging 16.3 fantasy PPG during the span.. Suspect QB play figures to lead to inconsistent output, but considering Wentz threw for 350 yards on Sunday and has thrown two TD passes in both of his 2025 appearances, there's enough here to keep Addison in the WR3 discussion against Cleveland.We're downgrading Cleveland's wide receivers against a terrific Minnesota pass defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, including to the perimeter, as well as the lowest EPA allowed to the pass overall.is off to a slow start , so he should be glued to your bench. Not 100% healthy at times early this season, Bowers is off to a slow start. The second-year tight end produced 103 yards on eight targets in Week 1, but left that game early and has fallen short of 50 yards and 10.0 fantasy points in three-straight outings. The good news is that Bowers doesn't appear limited and in Week 4, though his six targets may seem weak, he actually saw a season-high 30% target share . Better days are likely ahead for Bowers, and that very well could start this week against a Colts defense that has allowed eight passing TDs .Upgrade the Colts wide receivers against a Raiders pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position as well as the eighth-highest EPA against the pass. Pittman is the only Colts receiver you can trust right now and should be locked into lineups in this terrific matchup againstmade his first NFL start on Sunday, and the results suggest we may have a potential fantasy asset on our hands. With New York ahead or tied on all 67 offensive snaps, Dart needed to attempt only 20 passes , but he showed his dual-threat ability with a 10-54-1 rushing line. The latter was enough to give him a top-10 fantasy outing. Dart will surely need to throw the ball more often moving forward, and that figures to be the case this week against a New Orleans defense that sits top five in passing TDs and fantasy points allowed to QBs. All four QBs that have faced New Orleans have produced 16-plus fantasy points. Rookie bumps will pop up, but even without, Dart has the skill set to hang on the fantasy radar. He's worth scooping up on waivers and is a streaming option in Week 5.The Giants may be down Nabers for the rest of the season, but the team's new-look WR room is positioned with a very good Week 5 matchup. The Saints have allowed the fourth-highest EPA against the pass, as well as the fourth-most fantasy points to the perimeter. They sit midpack in overall fantasy points allowed to receivers, but only because they've faced so little volume . Yes, Fields is a lineup lock this week. The Dallas defense simply cannot stop the pass, having allowed at least 24 fantasy points to the opposing QB in all four games. The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards , most passing TDs and the highest YPA , not to mention a 26-122-2 rushing line to quarterbacks. Fields has played two full games, and both were strong fantasy efforts: 29.5 points against Pittsburgh in Week 1 and 27.1 points against Miami on Monday night. He posted massive rushing lines of 12-48-2 and 7-81-1, respectively, in the two games, while also throwing for 200-plus yards and one TD in both. Field's dual-threat ability combined with the elite matchup sets him up for a strong Week 5 showing.is a strong bet to shadow Pickens this week. New York's top corner has traveled with clearly-established No. 1 perimeter receivers, includingin Week 2. Gardner did a respectable job in both games , but he hasn't been as elite as usual and the Jets are allowing the third-highest EPA against the pass. Pickens is fresh off an 8-134-2 showing on 11 targets against the Packers and has 17-plus fantasy points in three-straight games. WithNo shocker here, but we're upgrading Wilson and the Jets receivers in a big way against the aforementioned horrific Dallas pass defense. The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers overall, as well as to both the left and right perimeters. They have the worst defensive EPA both overall and against the pass and have allowed the most yards and TDs to receivers. In four games, three receivers have hit 28 fantasy points against Dallas. Wilson is the only Jets receiver we can trust, but he's in a terrific spot this week.early on in Week 2. Pickens and Adams were mostly held in check and Egbuka struggled until hitting for a long touchdown in Week 4. Mitchell is one of the league's best young corners, and the Eagles have been good against the pass , though they have faced the fourth-most WR targets. Sutton should be downgraded but will see enough volume to hang in the WR2/3 mix.this season. The four receivers averaged 9.2 fantasy points, and only Johnston cleared 8.0. Brown remains heavily targeted but is off to a slow start, with only one double-digit fantasy point performance. Brown is too good to bench, but this matchup knocks him down to WR2 territory. is out for the season, which cements Waddle as a lineup lock. The fifth-year receiver has seen either five or six targets in all four games this season and is averaging just 46.3 yards per game, but he does have a pair of touchdowns and a history of strong fantasy production . Waddle saw a season-high 24% target share on Monday night, which aligns much closer with where he was earlier in his career and is in the vicinity of what we should expect moving forward.Speaking of Miami's wide receivers, they'll have their hands full this week. Carolina has been terrific against the position, having allowed the second-fewest fantasy points as well as the fewest yards and lowest catch rate . is the only receiver who has reached 11 points against the Panthers in a game this season. Expectations for Waddle and company should be lowered against Carolina's solidappears to be the new lead back in Houston. The fourth-round rookie's snap share has increased each week and peaked at 58% in Week 4 against Tennessee. Marks posted a strong 17-69-1 rushing line and added 4-50-1 on five targets. Marks' rushing volume benefited from the one-sided win, but he was utilized throughout the game , and his standout ability as a receiver will keep him involved in the passing game. fading a bit, Marks has found his way into the weekly RB2/flex mix. He has a terrific Week 5 matchup against an injury-plagued Ravens defense that has allowed the most TDs and fantasy points to running backs.will be under center for Baltimore. It's an obvious downgrade for the Baltimore offense, especially the passing game, though it's worth noting that Rush was somewhat competent in place ofin Dallas last season. During seven full games, Rush threw 11 TD passes and four INTs, averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and completed 62% of his passes. That's not especially good, but it could've been much worse than 233 passing yards per game and at least one passing TD in all seven outings.amass 17.8 fantasy PPG, which ranked 14th among receivers. Baltimore's Rush-led passing game will have its hands full against a good Houston pass defense, and the Ravens could turn to a run-heavy approach with Henry . Henry and Flowers will see enough work to warrant a spot in your lineup, but everyone else is best avoided.in the backfield. Demercado out-snapped Carter 26-4 last week , so while he's the favorite for 1A duties, it's very possible this is a near-even split. Demercado has cleared four carries in a game only three times in his career , whereas Carter -- once a lead back for the Jets -- has 327 carries and 151 targets to his name in his career. Arizona RBs weren't very productive last week, but the matchup was very tough and life will be easier in Week 5 against a Titans defense that has allowed 5.0 YPC, the most TDs and fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. This is a backfield best avoided, but if you're in a tough spot, Demercado is the preferred flex.. Sutton had a strong Week 1, though he didn't record a catch against a limited Sneed, and whereas Adams posted a strong 22.6 points in Week 2, Collins was held to 11.9 in Week 4. Though he's trending up, Sneed isn't quite yet his elite 2023 self and Tennessee has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers. Harrison's bust risk is higher than usual, but he remains a WR3 option after his strong Week 4 fantasy showing.It took only one week for Godwin to re-enter"lineup lock" status. Godwin's season debut saw him produce only 26 yards on three catches, but, more importantly, he played 55 snaps and registered 10 targets. Godwin hit double-digit targets only once last season and was still the No. 2-scoring wide receiver in fantasy when healthy. Target distribution could get tricky in Tampa Bay once's clear top targets and should be in lineups. That includes Week 5 despite a tough matchup against a Seattle defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards and third-fewest fantasy points to receivers.is expected to slide in as Tampa Bay's lead back. It's a role White held in 2023 when he soaked up 299 carries and 69 catches while scoring 10 TDs. White, who found the end zone nine times in a lesser role last season, is an excellent pass catcher and, even if he shares carries with, he has a path to RB2 production this week. That's the case even against a solid Seattle run defense that has allowed 3.3 yards per carry and zero rushing TDs, but also the most catches and receiving yards to RBs.'s slow start to the season continued on Monday night , but there is reason for optimism that he can remain in the RB2 mix moving forward. Brown played 74% of the snaps in the game and has now cleared 70% in three of four games. He also posted season-high marks in yards per carry and scrimmage yards . Additionally, Cincinnati's fantasy schedule is about to go from one of the hardest to one of the easiest moving forward.won't be back any time soon, but Brown's combination of heavy usage and a more-appealing schedule will help keep him fantasy relevant. He's a fine RB2/flex play against a Lions defense that has allowed one TD to the opposing lead back in all four games. McConkey's slump continued on Sunday as the second-year receiver posted career-low marks in receptions , yardage and fantasy points . McConkey's playing time was the same as usual , but Herbert simply chose to continue his heavy reliance on Johnston and Allen . McConkey has now seen his target share, yardage and fantasy point total dip each week of the season and he sits 51st among receivers in fantasy points. Despite the recent struggle, the Chargers' pass-heavy, WR-friendly scheme is enough to keep highly talented McConkey in the WR3 mix. He should remain in lineups against a Washington defense that has allowed the fifth-highest EPA against the pass. Diggs has earned his way back to"lineup lock" status. The 11-year vet was limited to open the season, while getting back to full health from last season's torn ACL. During Weeks 1-3, he played 54% of the snaps, handled 14% of the targets and posted a 13-112-0 receiving line on 15 targets. In Week 4, Diggs played 63% of the snaps, handled 41% of the targets and delivered a 6-101-0 line on seven targets. Diggs sits 37th among receivers in fantasy points despite ranking 72nd in routes and having seen minimal goal-line work .is in the midst of a breakout season, and Diggs is quickly emerging as his No. 1 target. Diggs should be in lineups in a big divisional game against Buffalo this week. Back from a shoulder injury that cost him the first three games of the season, Worthy certainly made his presence felt in Week 4. The second-year receiver soaked up a pair of carries and eight targets while leading the Chiefs in both rushing and receiving yards. Worthy accomplished the feat despite playing only 59% of the offensive snaps. Tracing back to last season, Worthy is averaging 8.3 touches, 93.7 yards and 20.9 fantasy points per game in his last seven full outings. At least until
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