Britain is due to leave the European Union on April 12 unless Prime Minister The...
LONDON - Britain is due to leave the European Union on April 12 unless Prime Minister Theresa May can break the deadlock in parliament or asks Brussels for more time, raising the prospect of an abrupt, no-deal Brexit for the world’s fifth-biggest economy.
Here is an outline of the potential economic impact for Britain of leaving the EU without the cushion of a transition.The Bank of England estimates a worst-case Brexit — involving border delays and markets losing confidence in Britain — could shock the economy into a 5 percent contraction within a year, nearly as much as during the global financial crisis.
The BoE also sees a risk in Britain’s wide current account deficit. Governor Mark Carney has said the deficit leaves Britain reliant on “the kindness of strangers” and a no-deal Brexit could turn foreign investors off British assets. Academics at Imperial College say two extra minutes spent checking each vehicle at Dover and Folkestone could lead to traffic queues of 29 miles on nearby highways.
France has said it plans to hire hundreds of additional customs officers and create extra border control facilities.Finance minister Philip Hammond has built up a fiscal war-chest to spend more in case of a Brexit shock to the economy. The BoE has warned investors not to assume that it would rush to cut borrowing costs after a no-deal shock. A fall in the value of the pound would push up inflation, something that would argue against a rate cut.
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