In one graph, you can see just how much ExxonMobil knew about climate change.
gives us the first comprehensive review of decades of ExxonMobil climate models. And the company’s projections for how much global temperatures would rise over the years were pretty much on the dot.“What’s pretty shocking is the accuracy and skill of their insights. They didn’t just vaguely know something about global warming ... They knew as much as academic researchers,” says Geoffrey Supran, a research associate at Harvard University and lead author of the new paper.
Looking back on predictions ExxonMobil has made since the 1970s, its estimates for future global temperature increases line up pretty closely with what actually took place. To show just how good the company has been at predicting global warming,The graph above summarizes all of the global warming projections from ExxonMobil scientists between 1977 and 2003 , superimposed on a red line showing the real-world increases in global temperature.
The red line shows how much global average temperatures have actually changed over time, a result of greenhouse gas emissions trapping heat. The gray lines represent ExxonMobil’s global warming projections. The colors of the lines range from light gray to dark gray, with lighter colors representing the company’s early research starting in the late 1970s to darker gray representing the company’s more recent estimates in the early 2000s.
The key takeaway is that ExxonMobil could foresee just how much the petroleum products it sold would heat up the planet. The globe has already warmed by about
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