Experts think we’re flattening the coronavirus curve—but hospitalizations haven’t peaked yet. More, via FiveThirtyEight:
, taken on April 6 and 7, shows that experts expect about 660,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases on April 12, indicating that they see the coronavirus spread as likely slowing. However, they think hospitalizations are most likely to peak in May, with a 42 percent chance that they won’t peak until after June 1. The experts also believe that only 13 percent of all infections in the U.S. had been reported on April 5, implying that there could have been up to 20.
Among the experts, there was a large spread in the projected number of cases that will be reported on April 12, as well as in each expert’s uncertainty surrounding those estimates. Next week’s case estimates indicate that the experts think the spread of the virus is likely to slow in the U.S., although there’s no guarantee of that if the case count falls near the top end of next week’s range.Although the experts think the spread of COVID-19 is likely to slow down in the coming weeks, they still think hospitalizations are most likely to peak in May, and the expert consensus gives a 42 percent chance that hospitalizations won’t peak until after June 1.
And although new hospitalizations have been falling in recent days, experts think there’s a 2 in 3 chance that new daily hospitalizations won’t fall below 200 again until after May 1.
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